WEATHER: Most of NZ to escape rain from Cyclone Donna


Cyclone Donna continues to weaken today as it tracks south, the air pressure has risen considerably at the storm will likely lose it's Tropical Cyclone status within the next 24 hours or at some point on Thursday.

While Donna weakens as she drifts south from the warm air and seas of the tropical South Pacific she'll restructure into a new system in the New Zealand area - and latest guidance we rely on and trust suggests a bigger, deeper, low will form east of the North Island on Saturday, but be drifting away from us by then hopefully.

Based on data today most computer modelling places the centre of Donna just east of New Zealand - not a direct hit like Ex-Cyclone Cook. This isn't to say a direct hit can't happen, but that the world's best thinking suggests it won't. Modelling at has been consistent about this track for over a week now.

If there wasn't a large blocking high to the east of New Zealand believes Donna would pose no threat to New Zealand and quickly track by well to the north east. The high, however, is encouraging Donna to track closer to Aotearoa and therefore it brings a general threat - such as heavy rain, gales and dangerous beach conditions in the north east of the North Island. 

(The Rain Map at the top of this page shows the Rain forecast for Midnight friday - it shows Donna at her closest to New Zealand (based on modelling out today, Wednesday). If this map is accurate, almost all of Donna's rain will be falling at sea)