The tropics holds the key to New Zealand rainfall in February 2018.
That means confidence in this month's rainfall forecasts is much lower than at other times of the year.
The month begins in the middle of a significant rainfall event associated with the remnants of ex-Cyclone Fehi.
It is likely that New Zealand experiences further rainfall from tropical lows or even cyclones during the month.
However, between this weekend and about mid-month, there should be a return to drier than normal weather patterns over the southern half of the South Island.
Elsewhere, expect intermittent rainfalls and long dry spells, which is often the recipe at this time of year.
Overall, February rainfall totals (including the ex-Cyclone Fehi event) are predicted to be normal-to-above-normal right across New Zealand.
February monthly temperatures are forecast to be well above average over the southern half of the South Island, and above average everywhere else.
However,there is some week-to-week detail that offers some relief from the non-stop heat.
Following on from the clearance of ex-Cyclone Fehi this weekend, we see a short reprieve in the temperatures, with a cooler week signalled next week.
Watch the full forecast above with Lisa Murray from Metservice. Rural Weather on REX thanks to our friends at Novus.